Bitcoin Drops Back to 68,000 Dollars After Brief Recovery Attempt

Bitcoin has slipped back to 68,000 dollars after a short-lived rebound toward 74,000 dollars, reinforcing the fragile state of the crypto market. The drop of more than 6,000 dollars in just 48 hours suggests that bearish pressure remains firmly in control, while key technical resistance levels continue to block any sustained upside. The move highlights the uncertainty currently dominating not only Bitcoin, but the broader digital asset market as well.

Coinbase Premium briefly pointed to renewed US demand

One of the more encouraging signals during Bitcoin’s push higher was the return of a positive Coinbase Premium in February. This metric, which tracks whether Bitcoin is trading at a higher price on Coinbase than on other exchanges, is widely used as a sign of buying interest from US-based traders.

That positive premium appeared just as Bitcoin moved toward 74,000 dollars, a level that coincided with the 50-day moving average. For months, that line has acted as a major resistance zone, and the recent rally once again stalled right at that point. The premium suggested that American investors were willing to pay more to gain exposure to Bitcoin, typically a signal of stronger spot demand.

Still, the optimism faded quickly. Within two days, the gains had largely disappeared. Even with ETF inflows totaling 1.14 billion dollars, the rally failed to hold. Market observers pointed to uncertain macroeconomic data as the main reason why risk appetite evaporated so quickly. Investors remain highly sensitive to inflation readings and to any signals from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate decisions.

Bull Score Index remains deep in bearish territory

Another key sign of weakness is the Bull Score Index from CryptoQuant, which is still sitting at just 10 out of 100. That reading continues to reflect a market environment that is far closer to a bear phase than a new bullish trend.

The index combines a range of on-chain data points and sentiment indicators to assess broader market conditions. Readings below 30 are generally considered bearish, while levels above 70 tend to align with stronger bull market momentum. Even during Bitcoin’s climb toward 74,000 dollars, the index barely improved, underlining how little confidence traders had in the move.

At the same time, unrealized losses across the market have climbed to levels last seen around the middle of 2022. That kind of pressure can sometimes reduce the willingness of investors to keep selling aggressively, but it has not yet translated into a meaningful reversal. Historically, these phases often take time to develop into a lasting recovery.

Technical analysis shows clear resistance and support levels

Bitcoin’s rejection at 74,000 dollars was not random. That level lines up directly with the 50-day moving average, which has repeatedly stopped recovery attempts in recent months. Technical analysts see this moving average as one of the most important barriers for any broader trend reversal. Only a convincing close above it would begin to weaken the current bearish market structure.

Trading volume during the recent decline was also notably elevated, which points to strong selling pressure rather than a routine pullback. Intraday price action has shown the same pattern, with each rebound attempt quickly sold into, a classic sign of a weak market environment.

The main levels now in focus are becoming clearer. On the upside, 70,000 dollars remains an important psychological barrier, while 74,409 dollars marks the 50-day average and the next major resistance. On the downside, 68,839 dollars stands out as a Fibonacci support level, followed by the more important zones near 66,000 and 63,000 dollars, both of which are tied to previous February lows.

Three factors are likely to shape the coming week

In the short term, three themes are likely to determine where Bitcoin goes next. The first is ETF flow activity, which has become the clearest signal of institutional demand. While the latest inflows helped support the recent rally attempt, earlier outflows totaling 4.5 billion dollars had a very different effect. Bitcoin ETFs are now playing a central role in price discovery because they provide regulated access for large investors.

The second factor is geopolitics, especially tensions in the Middle East. Because crypto markets trade around the clock, they tend to react quickly to sudden shifts in global risk sentiment. Bitcoin is increasingly being treated as a risk-on asset, meaning it can come under pressure whenever broader uncertainty rises.

The third factor is US labor market data. Weak employment figures could strengthen hopes for rate cuts, which might benefit risk assets. Mixed or unclear data, however, could keep uncertainty elevated and prevent a stronger recovery from taking hold.

Signs of seller exhaustion are beginning to appear

Despite the broader weakness, some analysts are starting to notice early signs that selling pressure may be easing. Trading volumes on the sell side have begun to weaken, suggesting the market could be entering an exhaustion phase similar to the one seen in mid-2022. Back then, seller fatigue helped calm market conditions and eventually laid the foundation for a broader recovery.

Long-term holders are also showing little sign of panic, while short-term traders continue to drive much of the recent volatility. That concentration of supply in stronger hands could offer some medium-term stability if the selling wave continues to fade.