Bitcoin briefly pushed above 73,000 dollars last week, but the rally has already lost momentum. As of March 9, Bitcoin is trading around 67,684 dollars, well below that recent high. CryptoQuant analysts say the move looked more like a short-term relief rally than the beginning of a fresh bull market, pointing to a Bull Score Index of just 10 out of 100 as evidence that broader market conditions remain weak.
CryptoQuant still sees a fragile market
CryptoQuant’s research team argues that the recent bounce does not yet reflect a strong structural recovery. According to reports summarizing the firm’s latest analysis, both fundamental and technical conditions remain soft, and the low Bull Score suggests the market is still stuck in a bearish regime. The firm says Bitcoin usually needs a much stronger reading before a durable bull phase can take hold.
That is why the recent move above 73,000 dollars has not convinced on-chain analysts. In their view, easing sell pressure is helping price recover, but the broader demand backdrop is still not strong enough to support runaway optimism.
Selling pressure is easing, but conviction remains low
There are some encouraging signs under the surface. CryptoQuant data highlighted that spot demand contraction improved sharply, narrowing from roughly negative 136,000 BTC at the start of the year to about negative 25,000 BTC. Long-term holder selling has also slowed to around 276,000 BTC per month, the lowest pace in months. Analysts say these shifts suggest that the heaviest phase of selling may be fading.
Still, fading selling is not the same thing as strong buying. That distinction sits at the heart of CryptoQuant’s warning. The market may be stabilizing, but stabilization alone does not confirm a new bullish cycle.
Bitcoin now faces key resistance at 79,000 and 90,000 dollars
CryptoQuant says the next important test comes much higher. If Bitcoin does manage to recover again, the firm sees major resistance near 79,000 dollars and 90,000 dollars. Those levels are tied to traders’ on-chain realized price bands and have already acted as resistance during previous rebound attempts earlier this year.
That makes the current setup tricky for bulls. A move back above 73,000 dollars may look strong on the chart, but unless Bitcoin can eventually challenge and break those higher resistance zones, analysts are likely to keep treating rallies as temporary rather than transformational.
ETF inflows are helping, but not enough to settle the debate
Institutional demand has improved in recent sessions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a second straight week of net inflows, with roughly 568 million dollars coming in over the latest week after mixed daily flow data. Strong inflows early in the week were later offset by Thursday and Friday outflows, showing that institutional appetite is improving but still inconsistent.
That split explains why the market message remains mixed. ETF demand is clearly better than it was during the heavy outflow period earlier this year, but the recovery in flows has not yet translated into the kind of broad on-chain strength that would support a full bullish reset.
Why analysts are staying cautious
The caution is not just about crypto-specific indicators. Broader risk sentiment remains fragile as markets react to geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around interest rates. Reuters reported that U.S. equity funds saw their biggest outflows in eight weeks amid geopolitical worries, a reminder that the wider macro environment is still uneasy.
That backdrop matters for Bitcoin. Even with signs of improving ETF demand and reduced selling pressure, the market is still vulnerable to setbacks if macro conditions deteriorate or if investor confidence fades again.
Relief rally, not confirmed breakout
The core message from CryptoQuant is simple: Bitcoin’s rebound has improved sentiment, but the data still does not support full-blown euphoria. With the Bull Score Index stuck at 10, the firm sees the market as underpowered, even if the worst selling pressure has started to fade. For now, the rally looks more like a recovery attempt inside a fragile market than the start of a new bull run.
